Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Firpo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Platense 1-1 Firpo
Original prediction
Firpo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.64 | 24.7% | 21.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 25.9% | 25.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 49.4% | 52.3% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Firpo
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Firpo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PlatenseWWWLD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FirpoDWWDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PlatenseFirpo
45.8Attack62.2
54.2Defence75.6
45.8Form68.9
50.4Power68.8
0.71xG1.65