Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Platense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Platense 1-0 Alianza, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Platense 2-2 Alianza
Original prediction
Platense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.4% | 42.8% | 11.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.4% | 29.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 38.2% | 28.0% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Projected Score
Platense 1–0 Alianza
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Platense
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Platense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PlatenseLWWDD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
AlianzaLWDLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PlatenseAlianza
40.0Attack25.0
73.3Defence58.3
53.3Form33.3
57.6Power40.9
1.27xG0.70