Plateau Unitedvs
Sporting Lagos
COMPLETEDNigeria · NPFL · 10/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plateau United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Plateau United 2-3 Sporting Lagos
Original prediction
Plateau United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 59.6% | 51.7% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 25.9% | 26.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 6.11 | 14.6% | 21.6% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Plateau United
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Plateau United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00