Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PKKU · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PKKU 0-4 SalPa
Original prediction
PKKU
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.7% | 39.4% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.7% | 24.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.6% | 36.5% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
PKKU
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
PKKU has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PKKULWLWD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SalPaLWWWW
GF 18 · GA 12 · avg 3.60/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
PKKUSalPa
60.0Attack69.3
50.7Defence40.0
50.7Form56.0
54.6Power55.5
2.35xG1.93