Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PKKU · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
PKKU are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while SalPa are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and PKKU hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (56.3 v 53.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.5% in the Ykkönen, while PKKU holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
PKKU
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
9.5%
PKKU has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00