Pittsburgh Riverhoundsvs
Hartford Athletic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-0 Hartford Athletic, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 Hartford Athletic
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.4% | 35.9% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.9% | 33.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.7% | 30.9% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Projected Score
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0–0 Hartford Athletic
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.2%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00