Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piteå W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piteå W 2-0 Växjö W
Original prediction
Piteå W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.7% | 47.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.6% | 23.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 25.7% | 28.7% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Piteå W
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Piteå W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Piteå WDWLLD
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Växjö WLWLWL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Piteå WVäxjö W
39.6Attack43.8
47.9Defence37.5
39.6Form35.4
43.8Power39.8
1.63xG1.25