Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piteå W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piteå W 0-1 AIK W
Original prediction
Piteå W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.3% | 38.7% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.5% | 25.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 39.2% | 36.1% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Piteå W
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Piteå W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Piteå WWDWLL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AIK WDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Piteå WAIK W
41.2Attack45.1
51.0Defence49.0
43.1Form49.0
46.4Power49.9
1.35xG1.24