Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piteå · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piteå 3-0 Karlberg
Original prediction
Piteå
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.50 | 25.8% | 38.6% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.3% | 26.7% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 48.8% | 34.7% | -14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Piteå
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Piteå has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PiteåLDLDD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
KarlbergDLWWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
PiteåKarlberg
33.3Attack0.0
66.7Defence50.0
33.3Form16.7
45.3Power26.2
1.76xG1.24