Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piteå · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piteå 3-1 Järfälla
Original prediction
Piteå
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.0% | 46.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.5% | 25.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.5% | 27.5% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Piteå
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Piteå has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PiteåLLWLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JärfällaWLLLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
PiteåJärfälla
44.4Attack33.3
66.7Defence0.0
44.4Form0.0
51.4Power15.3
1.93xG1.12