Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piratas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Piratas are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (LWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded, while Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 58.9 against 58.8. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Piratas holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Piratas
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Piratas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.50
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80