Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pineto · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Pineto are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Livorno are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Pineto hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (51.4 v 45.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.3% in the Serie C - Girone B, while Pineto holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pineto
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
14.3%
Pineto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80