Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pineto · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Pineto are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Gubbio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Pineto hold a 29.3-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Pineto holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pineto
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
14.1%
Pineto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40