Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pineto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pineto 0-0 Gubbio, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pineto 1-0 Gubbio
Original prediction
Pineto
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.8% | 41.9% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.8% | 30.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.4% | 27.7% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Projected Score
Pineto 0–0 Gubbio
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Pineto
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Pineto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PinetoWDLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
GubbioLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PinetoGubbio
26.7Attack37.0
63.3Defence37.0
36.7Form25.9
44.2Power35.7
1.07xG0.74