Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pineto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pineto 0-4 Grosseto
Original prediction
Pineto
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.8% | 37.2% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.4% | 30.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 29.8% | 32.5% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Pineto
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Pineto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PinetoDDWLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GrossetoWDDLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PinetoGrosseto
40.4Attack50.0
57.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
51.4Power50.0
1.14xG1.03