Pietà Hotspursvs
Naxxar Lions
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 9/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pietà Hotspurs · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pietà Hotspurs 3-2 Naxxar Lions
Original prediction
Pietà Hotspurs
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 27.5% | 37.2% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.0% | 27.4% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 48.4% | 35.4% | -13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Pietà Hotspurs
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Pietà Hotspurs has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60