Piešťanyvs
Spartak Trnava
COMPLETEDSlovakia · Cup · 10/14/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Trnava · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piešťany 0-2 Spartak Trnava
Original prediction
Spartak Trnava
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 26.38 | 3.5% | 29.1% | 25.6 pts |
| Draw | 13.56 | 6.8% | 20.5% | 13.7 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 89.7% | 50.4% | -39.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-39.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–28%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Trnava
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Spartak Trnava has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 7 · avg 3.80/1.40
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40