Piast Gliwicevs
Pogon Szczecin
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/20/2026, 10:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Piast Gliwice · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin
Original prediction
Piast Gliwice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.4% | 37.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.7% | 27.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.9% | 35.2% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Piast Gliwice
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Piast Gliwice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00