Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pianese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pianese 0-0 Vado
Original prediction
Pianese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 41.1% | 38.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.5% | 30.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.3% | 31.6% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Pianese
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Pianese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PianeseLLWDD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VadoWD
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 1.50/0.50
BTTS 1/2O2.5 0/2
PianeseVado
42.1Attack50.0
57.9Defence50.0
46.5Form50.0
50.5Power50.0
1.19xG1.01