Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phu Dong · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Phu Dong 2-1 Thanh Hóa
Original prediction
Phu Dong
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.4% | 47.9% | -20.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.41 | 20.6% | 25.7% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 8.30 | 11.0% | 26.3% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Phu Dong
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Phu Dong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Phu DongWWWDW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Thanh HóaWLLDL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Phu DongThanh Hóa
100.0Attack100.0
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power80.3
1.64xG1.25