Phu Dongvs
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
COMPLETEDVietnam · V.League 1 · 10/18/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phu Dong · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Phu Dong 4-3 Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Original prediction
Phu Dong
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 65.5% | 58.1% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 20.2% | 22.4% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 6.31 | 14.2% | 19.5% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Phu Dong
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Phu Dong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60