Phoenix Risingvs
Sacramento Republic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 5/31/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Phoenix Rising are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sacramento Republic are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Sacramento Republic hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (46.4 v 55.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.0% in the USL Championship, while Sacramento Republic holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sacramento Republic
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
16.0%
Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00