Phoenix Risingvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/25/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phoenix Rising · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Phoenix Rising 3-3 Lexington
Original prediction
Phoenix Rising
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.5% | 38.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 28.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.4% | 33.2% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Phoenix Rising
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20