Phoenix Risingvs
Las Vegas Lights
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phoenix Rising · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Phoenix Rising 3-2 Las Vegas Lights
Original prediction
Phoenix Rising
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.6% | 41.7% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.8% | 26.7% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.6% | 31.5% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Phoenix Rising
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20