Phoenix Risingvs
Indy Eleven
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 8/30/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phoenix Rising · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Phoenix Rising 2-1 Indy Eleven
Original prediction
Phoenix Rising
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.6% | 41.1% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.3% | 26.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 26.1% | 31.9% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Phoenix Rising
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20