Phoenix Risingvs
FC Tulsa
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tulsa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Phoenix Rising 0-0 FC Tulsa, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Phoenix Rising 2-1 FC Tulsa
Original prediction
FC Tulsa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 47.1% | 35.1% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 26.8% | 35.9% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Projected Score
Phoenix Rising 0–0 FC Tulsa
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
FC Tulsa
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
FC Tulsa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Phoenix RisingDWDWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
FC TulsaDWWLL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Phoenix RisingFC Tulsa
46.4Attack39.4
55.1Defence71.2
43.5Form54.5
49.7Power56.1
0.84xG0.99