Phoenix Risingvs
El Paso Locomotive
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
El Paso Locomotive · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Phoenix Rising 1-3 El Paso Locomotive
Original prediction
El Paso Locomotive
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.9% | 35.4% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.7% | 24.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.4% | 39.8% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
El Paso Locomotive
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
El Paso Locomotive has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60