GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 3/1/2026, 9:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Philadelphia Union are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while New York City FC are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and New York City FC hold a 13.1-point power-rating edge (40.9 v 54.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.7% in the Major League Soccer, while New York City FC holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

New York City FC

Probability

52.8%

Model confidence

10.7%

New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Philadelphia UnionLLWWL

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
New York City FCDLLDW

GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Philadelphia UnionNew York City FC
46.3Attack57.4
38.9Defence55.6
29.6Form48.1
40.9Power54.0
1.28xG2.02
View match centre →