Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pharco · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pharco 0-0 Tersana, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pharco 0-1 Tersana
Original prediction
Pharco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.2% | 43.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.9% | 32.2% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.96 | 22.9% | 23.9% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Projected Score
Pharco 0–0 Tersana
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Pharco
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Pharco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PharcoLWWDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TersanaDWDLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
PharcoTersana
44.4Attack27.8
72.2Defence72.2
72.2Form50.0
65.5Power53.0
0.97xG0.58