GGOALVIO

England · League Cup · 8/8/2023, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Peterborough are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Swindon Town are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 3.0-point power-rating edge (48.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.7% in the League Cup, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

37.7%

Model confidence

37.7%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PeterboroughWWWDW

GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Swindon TownWDLLL

GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PeterboroughSwindon Town
44.4Attack33.3
55.6Defence66.7
33.3Form33.3
48.3Power45.3
1.46xG1.23
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