GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/8/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Peterborough are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Stevenage are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 26.2-point power-rating edge (81.1 v 54.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 67% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

67.0%

Model confidence

67.0%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PeterboroughWLLDW

GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
StevenageLWWDL

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PeterboroughStevenage
75.0Attack66.7
79.2Defence55.6
87.5Form44.4
81.1Power54.9
2.56xG1.00
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