GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/5/2024, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Peterborough are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Crystal Palace U21 are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 64.4-point power-rating edge (81.1 v 16.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 82.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 83% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

82.8%

Model confidence

82.8%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PeterboroughLWLDW

GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Crystal Palace U21WLWLL

GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PeterboroughCrystal Palace U21
75.0Attack22.2
79.2Defence11.1
87.5Form0.0
81.1Power16.7
3.44xG0.75
View match centre →