GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 1/23/2024, 7:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Peterborough are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Crawley Town are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 17.7-point power-rating edge (81.1 v 63.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

65.9%

Model confidence

65.9%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PeterboroughWWWDD

GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Crawley TownLWWLW

GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PeterboroughCrawley Town
75.0Attack66.7
79.2Defence46.7
87.5Form66.7
81.1Power63.4
2.61xG1.09
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