GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/30/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Peterborough are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Aston Villa U21 are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 51.6-point power-rating edge (81.1 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 78.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

78.8%

Model confidence

78.8%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PeterboroughLWWLL

GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Aston Villa U21LDLDL

GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PeterboroughAston Villa U21
75.0Attack66.7
79.2Defence0.0
87.5Form11.1
81.1Power29.5
3.40xG0.95
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