GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 12/5/2023, 7:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Peterborough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Peterborough are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Arsenal U21 are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (LWDL), averaging 2.50 scored and 2.25 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 41.4-point power-rating edge (81.1 v 39.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 77.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Peterborough holds the strongest overall chance at 77% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Peterborough

Probability

77.1%

Model confidence

77.1%

Peterborough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PeterboroughDWLWL

GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Arsenal U21LWDL

GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.50/2.25

BTTS 3/4O2.5 4/4
PeterboroughArsenal U21
75.0Attack75.0
79.2Defence16.7
87.5Form33.3
81.1Power39.7
3.43xG1.04
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