Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pesch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Pesch are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 5.80 conceded, while Hennef 05 are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Pesch hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 41.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.0% in the Oberliga - Mittelrhein, while Pesch holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pesch
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Pesch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 29 · avg 0.20/5.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40