Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pesch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Pesch are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Hennef 05 are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Pesch hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (46.5 v 41.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.0% in the Oberliga - Mittelrhein, while Pesch holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pesch
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Pesch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40