Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Perugia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Perugia 0-0 Vado, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Perugia 0-2 Vado
Original prediction
Perugia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.9% | 42.0% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.2% | 30.5% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.84 | 18.8% | 27.5% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Projected Score
Perugia 0–0 Vado
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Perugia
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Perugia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PerugiaWWLLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
VadoWDLLL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PerugiaVado
37.5Attack19.0
50.0Defence61.9
54.2Form23.8
49.8Power38.0
1.05xG0.78