Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Perugia 0-0 Spezia, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Perugia 0-3 Spezia
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.7% | 35.5% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 30.8% | 30.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.6% | 33.5% | -5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Projected Score
Perugia 0–0 Spezia
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
35.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PerugiaLWDWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SpeziaWWWWD
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PerugiaSpezia
37.7Attack50.0
64.0Defence50.0
41.2Form50.0
48.9Power50.0
1.06xG0.87