Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Perugia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Perugia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Spal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Perugia hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (48.9 v 40.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.9% in the Serie C - Girone B, while Perugia holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Perugia
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Perugia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20