Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Perugia 0-0 Reggiana, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Perugia 1-0 Reggiana
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.46 | 26.1% | 34.3% | 8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.5% | 30.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.4% | 35.2% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Projected Score
Perugia 0–0 Reggiana
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.5%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PerugiaLLLWD
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ReggianaWWDWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PerugiaReggiana
37.7Attack50.0
64.0Defence50.0
41.2Form50.0
48.9Power50.0
1.05xG0.87