Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Perugia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Perugia 1-2 Pescara
Original prediction
Perugia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.5% | 37.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.1% | 28.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 37.4% | 33.7% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Perugia
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Perugia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PerugiaWLWWL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PescaraWDWLW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PerugiaPescara
46.7Attack40.7
50.0Defence55.6
53.3Form44.4
51.1Power49.1
1.35xG1.11