CONMEBOL Nations League WomenCONMEBOL Nations League Women
Tuesday, 9 June 2026Last updated 10:03
Peru W

Peru W

Home
W
40
Full time
Bolivia W

Bolivia W

Away
L
Estadio Miguel Grau
GoalVio prediction
83% confidence
Peru W
Most likely exact score2-0
Prediction correct— Result: Peru W
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Peru W
99
Bolivia W
9
Defence
Peru W
91
Bolivia W
1
Momentum
Peru W
100
Bolivia W
0
Danger (xG)
Peru W
3.60
Bolivia W
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 3.68 xG for Peru W and 0.51 xG for Bolivia W. Bolivia W's projected xG of 0.51 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 3-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Peru W will score, but Bolivia W's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Peru W's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 4.19 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 3-0 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Peru W's Attack Score (99) vs Bolivia W's Defensive Stability (1) and Bolivia W's attack (9) vs Peru W's defence (91) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Peru W)
3.60
avg per match
xG for (Bolivia W)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Peru W)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Bolivia W)
3.60
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Peru WPeru W
W
Bolivia WBolivia W
L

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Analysis

Peru W Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-0

Peru W host Bolivia W in CONMEBOL Nations League Women. Peru W have recorded LWDLDW in recent matches while Bolivia W arrive with a run of DLLLLL. These sides have met 7 times recently, averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 3.68 expected goals for Peru W against 0.51 for Bolivia W — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Peru W's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 64% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Peru W arrive in better recent form — 2 wins from 10 matches (LWDLDW) against Bolivia W's 0. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Peru W are generating a dominant xG advantage — 3.68 projected against 0.51 for Bolivia W. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 3.16 is the clearest signal in the model that Peru W are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Peru W are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 2 of their last 7 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Peru W 1Draws 00 Bolivia W
Avg goals: 4.0
10 Jun 2026
Peru W
W40
Bolivia W

Recent form

Peru W

Peru W

W
vs Bolivia W
10 Jun 2026
40
Bolivia W

Bolivia W

L
@ Peru W
10 Jun 2026
04

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Peru W vs Bolivia W?

GoalVio's model predicts Peru W to win with 83% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Peru W vs Bolivia W?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-0.

Will both teams score in Peru W vs Bolivia W?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Peru W vs Bolivia W?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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