Perth Gloryvs
Adelaide United
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Perth Glory · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Perth Glory 1-3 Adelaide United
Original prediction
Perth Glory
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.5% | 39.5% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.5% | 26.6% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.9% | 33.9% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Perth Glory
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Perth Glory has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20