Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Persita 3-2 Persija
Original prediction
Persija
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.74 | 19.2% | 29.3% | 10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.6% | 25.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 56.2% | 45.2% | -11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Persija
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Persija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PersitaWDWDL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
PersijaWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PersitaPersija
66.7Attack66.7
50.0Defence91.7
66.7Form100.0
64.8Power87.0
1.34xG1.62