Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Persija 5-1 Arema FC
Original prediction
Persija
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 70.0% | 57.4% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 18.3% | 21.9% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 7.82 | 11.6% | 20.8% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Persija
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Persija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PersijaLWWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Arema FCLDDDW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PersijaArema FC
60.0Attack73.3
86.7Defence40.0
86.7Form40.0
78.6Power50.4
2.08xG1.15