Persepam Madura Utdvs
Bhayangkara FC
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 10/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persepam Madura Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Persepam Madura Utd 3-3 Bhayangkara FC
Original prediction
Persepam Madura Utd
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 33.7% | 41.4% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.6% | 26.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.7% | 32.0% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Persepam Madura Utd
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Persepam Madura Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00