Persebaya Surabayavs
PSS Sleman
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 10/18/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persebaya Surabaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Persebaya Surabaya 2-2 PSS Sleman
Original prediction
Persebaya Surabaya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.7% | 48.8% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.8% | 25.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.44 | 20.4% | 25.3% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Persebaya Surabaya
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Persebaya Surabaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80