Persebaya Surabayavs
PSIM Yogyakarta
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 9/13/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persebaya Surabaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSIM Yogyakarta
Original prediction
Persebaya Surabaya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.3% | 42.2% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 27.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 21.0% | 30.0% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Persebaya Surabaya
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Persebaya Surabaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20