Persebaya Surabayavs
Persepam Madura Utd
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 10/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persebaya Surabaya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Persebaya Surabaya 3-1 Persepam Madura Utd
Original prediction
Persebaya Surabaya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.5% | 40.5% | -21.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.9% | 26.6% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 5.44 | 16.7% | 32.9% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Persebaya Surabaya
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Persebaya Surabaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40